Macquarie: the price for coking coals is expected with falling in 2009

28 November 2008
Macquarie has made revision of the forecasts on coked coal, expecting reduction of price in 2009 more than half as there can be a surplus of coal because of huge reduction of demand for steel and delays of the Chinese economy.

The bank also has changed the forecast for thermal coal for 2009. Demand in 2008 on coked coal transported by sea courts now makes 218 million tons, in 2009 up to 213 million tons. Sea delivery of coal in 2008 will make 231 million tons and 225 million to ns in 2009 Surplus of the offer will make 13 million tons and 12 million tons accordingly. From the planned deficiency in 10 million tons in March of current year, we now see 13 million tons of surpluses because of mass curtailment of production of steel in 4 quarter 2008 in the Europe. This surplus will render serious pressure upon the prices in 2009, we expect falling the price for difficultly coked coals up to $140/t from $300/t. Deficiency in the market will not appear till 2011, the forecast of deman d in 263 million tons can outstrip the offer on 2 million tons.

UBS has changed the forecast of the price of 2009 for coal of firm coking up to $180/t.

In 2009 g MDvMacquarie $120/t for low changeable coal PCI, decrease from the previous forecast in $2 80/t now expects. The bank has confirmed the forecast for coal polumjagkogo cokings in $115/t in 2009 in comparison with $240/t in 2008.

The export prices for coke of China can fall up to $390/t ex a board of a vessel in following year from earlier forec st $675/t.

" The market of thermal coal is more counterbalanced, but the prices can fall d $105/t from early predicted $170/t, that will reflect weak global economy at and decrease in need for import of India and China. " - has told Macquarie in the mess age, changing the forecast for 2009,

UBS predicts the prices for thermal coal in $100/t in following year and $90/t in 2010 and long-term falling of the price up to $65/t.